Unless someone is telling a whopper, Jon Gruden isn’t coming. Neither is Bill Cowher. So the Dolphins’ fanciful search for a star head coach, somebody who will bring credibility and championships while also selling tickets in the process, starts in earnest Monday … with an interview with interim coach Todd Bowles.
“I’d love to continue,” Bowles said Sunday following Miami’s season-ending 19-17 victory over the New York Jets, “but we’ll have a meeting on it [Monday]. I can only go from there. That’s all I can do.”
Bowles did good work in winning two of the three games he coached. He deserves the interview beyond any Rooney Rule mandate the Dolphins will obviously be fulfilling. He’s a solid guy who was very close to getting the Detroit Lions job a couple of years ago, and Bill Parcells thought highly enough of him to recommend him to both the Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
But is Todd Bowles a slam-dunk future success?
Is he an upgrade from Tony Sparano?
Is he going to sell tickets with his hiring as Jimmy Johnson and Nick Saban did?
No, no and no.
But Bowles nonetheless fills the general characteristics of many of the men the Dolphins will talk to during the hiring process the next few weeks. With Gruden and Cowher seemingly out of the picture and Jeff Fisher left as the shiniest, most expensive ride on the lot, the Dolphins will be interviewing a bunch of unproven guys beyond the former Tennessee Titans coach.
And even Fisher is starting to look like something of a long-shot because the more both Cowher and Gruden say they’re not returning to coaching, the more Fisher’s worth rises with coach-hungry teams.
Like him or not, Fisher did take a team to the Super Bowl.
Like him or not, Fisher is respected by coaches and owners throughout the league.
Like him or not, Jeff Fisher is the best and most obvious available coach for the Dolphins.
So he becomes the hottest property for teams that will begin as early as Monday firing their current coaches. Fisher will be considered a top candidate in San Diego, St. Louis and Tampa Bay if those jobs come open. He’s already a candidate in Jacksonville.
And that dilutes Miami’s chances of landing him.
Unless the Dolphins step up fast and strong and basically wow Fisher in the next couple of days, they might swing and miss on him after doing the same with Cowher and Gruden.
That’s right, the Dolphins have already contacted both Gruden and Cowher through back channels and were rebuffed by both.
That’s disappointing because when Sparano was fired, it was easy to believe the Dolphins could land a giant like Cowher, Gruden or Fisher.
Now, if sources, Cowher and Gruden themselves can be believed, the Dolphins must land Fisher or settle for lesser-known, lesser-regarded, lesser-credentialed coaches.
The Dolphins in the coming weeks may be chasing guys such as Mike Pettine of the New York Jets, New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, Washington defensive coordinator Jim Haslett, Dallas special-teams coach Joe DeCamillis, maybe Carolina offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski or perhaps Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey.
Yes, the Dolphins will definitely reach out to Fisher — perhaps as early as Monday — to gauge his interest in Miami. But if you’re expecting a constellation of stars lining up one after another to interview for the job beyond Fisher, forget it.
You will be disappointed.
Those big names do not seem possible for most teams and definitely not for the Dolphins. And the Dolphins don’t seem particularly inclined to dig into the college ranks for someone like Les Miles, who has said he wouldn’t be interested anyway, or into the past for Brian Billick, who actually might be interested but hasn’t gotten an interview in years.
So what can the folks wanting a proven commodity of a coach hope for?
The Dolphins need a combination of luck and some poor management elsewhere to find a good, proven coach.
Short of Fisher, the only way the Dolphins might find a proven winner who has experience and is a definite upgrade from Sparano is if some other team makes a mistake and fires that outstanding coach.
Yes, that is unlikely. Yes, that is not the kind of plan you want to have going into a hiring process. Yes, that is backing into the right decision.
But that happens in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts got lucky and hired Tony Dungy when he was fired in Tampa. The Giants got lucky and hired Tom Coughlin when he was fired in Jacksonville.
Both Dungy and Coughlin won a Super Bowl.
And last week, outgoing Jacksonville owner Wayne Weaver said his greatest regret with the team was firing Coughlin.
So maybe Andy Reid leaves or is fired in Philadelphia.
Maybe something wild and weird happens in Chicago with Lovie Smith.
That avenue cannot be discounted because it has potential.
Truth is, this coaching search has a lot of potential. But it also has potential for disappointment if you were hoping for a big-name coach.